The elliott wave principle applied in real time and to all markets.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD
With a high at 125.90 there is a good possibility, that the expected X-wave has finished and the downside pressure again is building. That said, we need a clear break below 124.54 to confirm the top and building of renewed downside pressure. Looking at the correction since the 127.70 high, we have seen a zig-zag correction, but I do think it is to small to correct all of wave 3, therefore I'm looking for a new zig-zag correction developing, that would likely take us down to 121.26 as the first target. At 121.26 wave 4 will have corrected 23.6% of wave 3, but a more normal corrective target will be at the 38.2% corrective target at 117.28, which also marks the bottom of wave iv of one lessor degree. For this count to stay valid, at no point should we see a break above 126.95 as a break above here would call for a new rally higher towards 127.70.
Here we only saw a rally to 1.5858 followed by a shallow correction down to 1.5764. The question is, was this correction enough? I will have to say yes, even though the correction could have been deeper. I have noticed in this currency-pair, that wave two can be very shallow and only retrace the absolut minimum. I will now be on guard for a break above 1.5848 that would confirm the next rally higher towards 1.5947 and 1.6088. However, the risk is a break below 1.5764 that would call for a deeper correction towards 1.5745 and possibly even 1.5723 before the next rally high.
I'm a keen Elliott wave follower. I do use, what you might call, standard technical analysis too, but my main focus is on the Elliott Wave Principel.
I use it professionaly as well as in my private affairs. To give you an example I sold my house in late 2005 and are currently renting a flat, not expecting to reenter the property market before 2012-2013.
I'm very much into long term seasonal cycles and demography too.
Waiver: I will not accept any responsability for any loss of funds because of any investmenst done on the basis of my analysis. The analysis herein are done with the utmost due dilligence, but can from time to time be wrong and point you in the wrong direction.
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